The consumer continues to be under duress. Job losses continue to mount; while weekly readings are down from their highs, initial unemployment claims are still running above expectations. For those already out of work, they face only a finite amount of unemployment benefits. Housing prices continue to fall, again, at a slower pace, but the effect is still the same as Americans can no longer draw on their home values for spending or count on the ever-rising house price for future wealth increases. Credit lines are being drawn in by card issuers and consumers face high fees for their outstanding debt balances. Without question, these factors have had their effect on consumer spending (and saving). Retail sales continue to contract more than economists have expected. The savings rate, at 4.6 percent, remains close to the 13-year high it reached in May.
The tough consumer environment clearly is having an effect on retailers, who have largely struggled through this deep recession. At the expense of profits, most have cut prices to keep up sales volumes; job cuts and inventory reductions have helped support profit margins, but there is no getting around the dismal environment. On the other hand, some retailers have held their own. One in particular has been Wal-Mart (WMT). The world’s largest retailer reported second-quarter earnings last week that not only beat analysts’ expectations, but also showed growth versus the year earlier period.
For the first time in five weeks, the market posted a weekly decline last week, changing the underlying mood from overwhelmingly bullish to more cautious. Market participants concentrated on retail sales numbers and on the decline in consumer confidence as measured by Reuters and the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment.
While the auto sector has received a boost from cash-for-clunkers-related sales, the overall picture continues to reflect a consumer who’s stretched beyond his means. Foreclosure filings rose to a record, and retail sales declined the most since March. Americans are increasingly seeking bankruptcy protection: 35 percent more individuals or households file for bankruptcy today than a year ago, and the numbers are moving higher. The trend is also very disturbing for businesses, with a 64 percent increase in filings over a six-month period versus a year ago.
These are just some of the reasons why I am concerned that the market’s advance is overdone. The government spending, which has been replacing both consumer and business demand, has been helping the economy, but this just cannot replace all the demand that’s been lost – and cannot go on forever.
The other day, Warren Buffett reiterated his views on the government spending by writing an op-ed piece for The New York Times. Buffett called it a “butterfly effect” as the consequences of the government spending could exceed the size of it. With the U.S. economy “out of the emergency room,” now could be the time to address the size of that spending. “With government expenditures now running 185 percent of receipts, truly major changes in both taxes and outlays will be required. A revived economy can’t come close to bridging that sort of gap.”
Buffett finished his op-ed article with the following: “Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar’s destiny lies with Congress.” I cannot agree more. This is why I like the markets of those countries that are commodities-rich, expecting commodities to benefit from the weaker dollar. And, of course, I like gold – the ultimate dollar hedge.
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